Question A:
If the US replaced
its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard,
defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the
price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average
American.
Responses
© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
8%
0%
53%
40%
0%
0%
0%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
66%
34%
0%
0%
0%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Question B:
There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.
Responses
© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
8%
3%
0%
0%
0%
23%
68%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
0%
0%
0%
22%
78%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A gold standard would have avoided the policy mistakes of the 2000s, but still likely that discretionary policy is useful during recessions
|
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![]() ![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() ![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() ![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() ![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() ![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() ![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
![]() ![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
![]() ![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() ![]() Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() ![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
![]() ![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() ![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A time series plot of the price of consumption in ounces of gold, and then in US dollars, clarifies that gold is not a stable standard.
|
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![]() ![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
![]() ![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() ![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
eesh. Has it come to this?
|
||||
![]() ![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Modern interest-rate feedback rules (Taylor rules) do a vastly better job. The instability of the relative price of gold is way too high.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
All insights from the past and current crises go against a gold standard.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Since gold has supply and demand dynamics of its own, for reasons unrelated to its use as a store of value, Americans would exposed to risk.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The relative price of gold can be very volatile.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A gold standard regime would be a disaster for any large advanced economy. Love of the G.S. implies macroeconomic illiteracy.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
![]() ![]() Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The gold standard adds credibility when a country lacks discipline.The cost is monetary polic flexibility. The tradeoff is unclear in US.
|
||||
![]() ![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This proposal makes no sense in the modern world. Just look at the Eurozone to see the consequences.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
![]() ![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
![]() ![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() ![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() ![]() Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
![]() ![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
![]() ![]() Nancy Stokey |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There are much better ways to avoid excessive inflation, while maintaining the flexibility of a fiat currency.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Why tie to gold? why not 1982 Bordeaux?
|
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![]() ![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() ![]() Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() ![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Gold is intrinsically close to useless, so its price is determined as a "bubble".
|
||||
![]() ![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
new gold reserve discoveries and changes in the technology of extraction, to name two simple examples
|
||||
![]() ![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
So many that they would never fit in 140 characters...
|
||||
![]() ![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Gold is used as a safe haven in financial crisis. That has little to do with US inflation.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Go see a dentist.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is a market like any other. The supply of gold and other sources of demand affect its price in real terms relative to other goods.
|
||||
![]() ![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is no discernible connection between gold price and CPI movements in the period since the demonetization of gold in 1971.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Nancy Stokey |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Demand for gold seems to come from concern about the entire financial system. There are better ways to hedge inflation risk.
|
||||
![]() ![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
![]() ![]() Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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