Question A:
If the US replaced
its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard,
defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the
price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average
American.
Responses
© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
8%
0%
53%
40%
0%
0%
0%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
66%
34%
0%
0%
0%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Question B:
There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.
Responses
© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
8%
3%
0%
0%
0%
23%
68%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
0%
0%
0%
22%
78%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
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Bio/Vote History |
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A gold standard would have avoided the policy mistakes of the 2000s, but still likely that discretionary policy is useful during recessions
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A time series plot of the price of consumption in ounces of gold, and then in US dollars, clarifies that gold is not a stable standard.
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Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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eesh. Has it come to this?
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University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Modern interest-rate feedback rules (Taylor rules) do a vastly better job. The instability of the relative price of gold is way too high.
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All insights from the past and current crises go against a gold standard.
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Since gold has supply and demand dynamics of its own, for reasons unrelated to its use as a store of value, Americans would exposed to risk.
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The relative price of gold can be very volatile.
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Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A gold standard regime would be a disaster for any large advanced economy. Love of the G.S. implies macroeconomic illiteracy.
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The gold standard adds credibility when a country lacks discipline.The cost is monetary polic flexibility. The tradeoff is unclear in US.
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This proposal makes no sense in the modern world. Just look at the Eurozone to see the consequences.
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Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are much better ways to avoid excessive inflation, while maintaining the flexibility of a fiat currency.
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Why tie to gold? why not 1982 Bordeaux?
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Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gold is intrinsically close to useless, so its price is determined as a "bubble".
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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new gold reserve discoveries and changes in the technology of extraction, to name two simple examples
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University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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So many that they would never fit in 140 characters...
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gold is used as a safe haven in financial crisis. That has little to do with US inflation.
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Go see a dentist.
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a market like any other. The supply of gold and other sources of demand affect its price in real terms relative to other goods.
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is no discernible connection between gold price and CPI movements in the period since the demonetization of gold in 1971.
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Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Demand for gold seems to come from concern about the entire financial system. There are better ways to hedge inflation risk.
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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