Question A:

If the US replaced its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average American.

Responses

© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
8%
0%
53%
40%
0%
0%
0%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
66%
34%
0%
0%
0%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel

Question B:

There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.

Responses

© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
8%
3%
0%
0%
0%
23%
68%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2021. Initiative on Global Markets.
0%
0%
0%
22%
78%
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel

Question A Participant Responses

Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
A gold standard would have avoided the policy mistakes of the 2000s, but still likely that discretionary policy is useful during recessions
Alesina Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Altonji Yale
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Autor MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Baicker University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty Harvard
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier Yale
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Currie Princeton
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Cutler Harvard
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Deaton Princeton
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Duffie Stanford
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
A time series plot of the price of consumption in ounces of gold, and then in US dollars, clarifies that gold is not a stable standard.
Edlin Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Fair Yale
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldin Harvard
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
eesh. Has it come to this?
Greenstone University of Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hall Stanford
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Modern interest-rate feedback rules (Taylor rules) do a vastly better job. The instability of the relative price of gold is way too high.
Holmström MIT
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
All insights from the past and current crises go against a gold standard.
Hoxby Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Since gold has supply and demand dynamics of its own, for reasons unrelated to its use as a store of value, Americans would exposed to risk.
Judd Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The relative price of gold can be very volatile.
Kashyap Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
A gold standard regime would be a disaster for any large advanced economy. Love of the G.S. implies macroeconomic illiteracy.
Klenow Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Lazear Stanford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
The gold standard adds credibility when a country lacks discipline.The cost is monetary polic flexibility. The tradeoff is unclear in US.
Nordhaus Yale
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
This proposal makes no sense in the modern world. Just look at the Eurozone to see the consequences.
Obstfeld Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Rouse Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Saez Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman Columbia University
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee MIT
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Shin Princeton
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Stock Harvard
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stokey Chicago
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
There are much better ways to avoid excessive inflation, while maintaining the flexibility of a fiat currency.
Thaler Chicago Booth
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Why tie to gold? why not 1982 Bordeaux?
Udry Northwestern
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Zingales Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu MIT
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Gold is intrinsically close to useless, so its price is determined as a "bubble".
Alesina Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Altonji Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Autor MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Currie Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Deaton Princeton
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Edlin Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Fair Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldin Harvard
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
new gold reserve discoveries and changes in the technology of extraction, to name two simple examples
Greenstone University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
So many that they would never fit in 140 characters...
Holmström MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Gold is used as a safe haven in financial crisis. That has little to do with US inflation.
Hoxby Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Go see a dentist.
Klenow Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Lazear Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is a market like any other. The supply of gold and other sources of demand affect its price in real terms relative to other goods.
Nordhaus Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
There is no discernible connection between gold price and CPI movements in the period since the demonetization of gold in 1971.
Obstfeld Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Rouse Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Saez Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman Columbia University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shin Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Stock Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Stokey Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Demand for gold seems to come from concern about the entire financial system. There are better ways to hedge inflation risk.
Thaler Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Udry Northwestern
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Zingales Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History